📰 Market Outlook – Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Pre-Market Snapshot (as of 9:00 AM ET):

• S&P 500 Futures: +0.30%

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.42%

• Gold (Spot): $3,351.49 per ounce

U.S. stock futures are up roughly 0.3% this morning, signaling optimism after Tuesday’s jobs “miss.” Meanwhile, the 10-year yield has ticked down to 4.42%, reflecting bond-market relief, and gold is steady at $3,351.49 as investors balance trade-tariff anxieties against recent economic data.

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What’s Driving the Markets Today

1. Trade-Tariff Tensions Remain High
   The new 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect yesterday, and markets are still digesting potential retaliation—particularly from China. Industrial and auto stocks could see continued pressure today as investors weigh the broader economic impact .

2. Jobs Data Aftershock
   Tuesday’s weak ADP report (just 37,000 new jobs vs. 110,000 expected) has stirred debate over the Fed’s timing for rate cuts. With today’s 10-year yield at 4.42%, bond investors appear to be banking on softer labor numbers to keep the Fed on hold through the summer .

3. Gold Holds as a Safe Haven
   At $3,351.49 per ounce, gold remains bid amid ongoing trade uncertainty and dovish whispers from Fed speakers. The metal’s rally underscores lingering geopolitical worries, despite a stronger U.S. dollar earlier this week .

4. Tech and Energy in Focus
   • Tech: AI-related names have stabilized after recent swings, but broad-market tech performance will hinge on whether macro headwinds ease.
   • Energy: OPEC+’s commitment to production cuts continues to support crude prices. Rising energy costs could keep inflation expectations elevated, which in turn affects both equity and bond markets.

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What to Watch Today

• Factory Orders (10 AM ET): A surprise drop could prolong risk-off sentiment; a beat could push bond yields modestly higher.

• Fed Speakers: Watch for comments from Fed Chair Powell later this week—any deviation from a “data-dependent” stance could move both stocks and bonds sharply.

• Sector Rotation: If higher yields persist, defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) may outperform cyclical names.

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Bottom Line:
With S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, the 10-year yield at 4.42%, and gold holding near $3,351.49, markets open on a cautiously optimistic note. Trade-tariff developments and Fed signals remain key drivers—today’s factory-orders data and upcoming Fed remarks will likely set the tone for the rest of the week.