📰 Market Outlook – Monday, June 2, 2025

Pre-Market Snapshot (U.S. hours)

• S&P 500 Futures: down 0.36% in early trading

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.437% (up from 4.415% Friday)

• Gold: up 1.79% in pre-market trading

These levels set the tone for a cautious open: equities look slightly weaker, bond yields tick higher, and gold is bid as investors digest renewed geopolitical and trade tensions.

---

What’s Driving the Markets Today

1. Trade-Tariff Concerns
   President Trump’s announcement that steel and aluminum tariffs will double to 50%—effective Wednesday—has reignited trade-war anxieties. Expected retaliation from trading partners, particularly China, is leading to cautious positioning: steel producers are rallying on tariff news, but broader stock futures are under pressure .

2. Fed Watch
   Investors remain laser-focused on Fed commentary ahead of this week’s May jobs report. The 10-year yield climbing toward 4.44% signals that bond investors are pricing in an extended “higher for longer” rate path. A softer-than-expected jobs print later this week could tilt markets back toward expecting a September rate cut.

3. Commodity Signals
   • Gold’s Rally: At +1.79% pre-market, gold is benefiting from haven-demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.
   • Oil Rebound: Although equity futures are subdued, crude prices are up over 3.6%, following OPEC+ indications of tighter supply. Rising energy costs could feed through into inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy calculus.

4. Tech Sector Momentum
   Despite the broader pullback, AI-related names and major semiconductor stocks remain bright spots. Last week’s bounce in chip shares is carrying into Monday’s pre-market session as investors hunt for “safer” growth areas.

---

What to Look Out For This Week

• May Jobs Report (Fri, Jun 6): Consensus expects ~180,000 new payrolls and a 3.7% unemployment rate. A beat could push yields higher; a miss could bolster risk assets.

• ISM Manufacturing (Mon, Jun 2): This morning’s release will be an early signal of industrial-sector health. A reading above 50 would suggest expansion and likely keep yields on edge.

• OPEC+ Meeting Outcomes: Any surprise on production cuts will ripple through oil markets—watch for possible further upside pressure on crude.

• Fed Speakers: Jerome Powell speaks Wednesday; other regional presidents will comment through Thursday. Look for any shift in “data dependency” language.

---

Bottom Line

Today’s pre-market snapshot—S&P 500 futures down 0.36%, 10-year Treasury at 4.437%, and gold up 1.79%—underscores investor caution heading into a pivotal week of data. Trade-tariff headlines and Fed signals remain the primary catalysts. Position your allocations with an eye toward sectors benefiting from inflation hedges (e.g., gold, energy) while monitoring whether any weaker employment data can reignite a risk-on move.