📰 Market Outlook – Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Pre‑Market Snapshot (as of ~9 AM ET):

• S&P 500 Futures (via SPY): little changed, hovering near record highs marketwatch.com+9wsj.com+9tipranks.com+9

• 10‑Year Treasury Yield (^TNX): ~4.29%, near early-May lows tipranks.com+2barrons.com+2wsj.com+2

• Gold Futures (GC=F): ~$3,336.40, up ~0.07% tipranks.com+3marketwatch.com+3marketwatch.com+3

🔍 What’s Driving the Markets Today

1. Middle East Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite
   The Israel–Iran ceasefire took effect overnight, helping stocks edge higher as geopolitical tensions eased. Agents are framing this as a buffer against supply shocks, supporting futures. Markets are now trading within 1% of the S&P’s record high reuters.com+1home.saxo+1wsj.com+2tipranks.com+2reuters.com+2.

2. Treasury Yields Stabilize
   The 10-year yield remains subdued (~4.29%), settling near early-May lows following Fed Chair testimony and easing geopolitical pressures en.wikipedia.org+12bloomberg.com+12home.saxo+12.

3. Gold Flat on Diminished Haven Demand
   Gold futures are modestly higher (+0.07%) but well off earlier rally peaks, reflecting reduced haven flows now that ceasefire has taken hold en.wikipedia.orgreuters.com+1home.saxo+1.

4. Oil Rebounds Amid Stabilization
   Oil prices have resumed earlier gains after a mid-week slide, buoyed by renewed stability in the Middle East. This soft upward pressure on oil could impact inflation expectations and bond-market positioning.

🔭 What to Watch Today

• Fed Chair Powell Testimony: Markets will scrutinize remarks for any change in the Fed’s “data-dependent” stance, as yields remain sensitive to tone.

• New-Home Sales Data (10 AM ET): A strong print could lift yields and equities; a miss may reinforce lower-rate anticipation.

• Corporate Earnings: Watch reports from General Mills, Paychex, and Micron for insight into consumer and industrial demand.

Market tone is cautiously positive: equity futures remain firm within range of record highs; yields are holding near recent lows; and gold is contained amid waning geopolitical jitters.