📰 Market Outlook – Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Pre-Market Snapshot (as of ~9:00 AM ET):

• S&P 500 Futures: little changed fxempire.com+15investopedia.com+15m.economictimes.com+15

• 10‑Year Treasury Yield (^TNX): dipped to 4.38% investors.com+1en.wikipedia.org+1

• Gold Futures: trading lower morningstar.co.uk+15investopedia.com+15investopedia.com+15

What’s Driving Markets Today

• Fed Hold Likely: Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at 4.25–4.50% with the chance of just one rate cut in 2025 flagged in the updated “dot plot” uk.investing.com.

• Geopolitical Pressure: Heightened Israel–Iran tensions continue to pressure oil markets and gold, though futures are stable ahead of the Fed decision apnews.com+3investopedia.com+3m.economictimes.com+3.

• Tech & AI Headlines: Pre-market movement is subdued; however, remarks from Amazon’s Andy Jassy on AI-driven workforce reductions and Tesla’s Texas plant shutdown are adding slight volatility in individual names .

• Oil Edges Up: Following a recent 14% surge, crude now trades just under $75—supportive for energy stocks but posing potential drag on inflation reuters.com.

What to Watch Today

1. Fed Decision & Powell Press Conference (2 PM ET): Focus on rate guidance, dot-plot changes, and Powell’s narrative shift.

2. Post-Fed Market Reaction: Bonds and equity sectors sensitive to rate outlook (financials, tech) could see sharp rotation.

3. Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation in the Middle East could reignite volatility in oil and gold.

Market tone this morning is subdued, with mixed signals around Fed expectations, geopolitical tension, and big-picture tech trends.