📰 Market Outlook – Tuesday, July 1, 2025

What’s Driving the Markets Today

1. Dollar Volatility & Tariff Concerns
   The U.S. dollar continues its decline—down more than 9% versus the yen this year—raising fears ahead of tariff deadlines. Investor caution is keeping futures about 0.3% lower apnews.com.

2. Tesla Tensions Reverberate
   Tesla shares are down over 5% pre-market after Elon Musk and President Trump escalated their public dispute regarding EV subsidies, dragging tech sentiment lower reuters.com+2investopedia.com+2theguardian.com+2finance.yahoo.com+7apnews.com+7investopedia.com+7.

3. Fed Powell Speaks in Portugal
   Markets await insights from Fed Chair Powell’s address on European Central Bank policy—investors are watching for clues on U.S. rate direction as geopolitical jitters collide with monetary policy wsj.com+1apnews.com+1apnews.com.

4. Global Equity Divergence
   While S&P futures register modest losses, Asian markets show mixed strength and Europe is negative as tariff anxieties and budget negotiations in Washington weigh on risk-tone cgsr.llnl.gov+1reuters.com+1.

What to Watch Today

• Labor Market Data: A trio of U.S. employment reports are due this week—ADP, ISM dialogue, and the June non-farm payrolls.

• Senate Budget & Tax Bill: The $3.3 trillion proposal advances toward Friday’s deadline in the Senate, with potential market impact.

• Powell’s Remarks: Any signals on rate cuts or inflation during his Portugal talk could sway bond and equity investors.

Market note:
Futures are down ~0.3%, Treasury yields are softer, and gold is advancing amid dollar softness. Expect volatility around tariff news, Tesla headlines, and this week’s labor data.