📰 Market Outlook – Thursday, June 26, 2025

Pre-Market Snapshot (as of ~9 AM ET):

• S&P 500 Futures (via SPY): modestly higher

• 10‑Year Treasury Yield (^TNX): steady in mid‑4.4% range

• Gold Futures (GC=F): up slightly on dollar weakness

What’s Driving the Markets Today

1. Dollar Under Pressure, Risk Appetite Grows
   The U.S. dollar has weakened to a three-year low amid uncertainty over the Fed’s independence and rising speculation over rate cuts—this boost supports equities and gold prices businessinsider.com+12monetamarkets.com+12inc.com+12marketwatch.com+5thetimes.co.uk+5en.wikipedia.org+5.

2. Equity Optimism from JPMorgan & Wharton
   JPMorgan’s new six-signal model forecasts a 96% chance of gains in the S&P over the next six months, driven by trends in flows, valuation, and momentum marketwatch.com. Meanwhile, Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel outlines support from geopolitical calm, AI growth, and declining inflation, fueling forecasts for new all-time highs marketwatch.com+4businessinsider.com+4inc.com+4.

3. Stagflation Risk from Tariffs
   JPMorgan also warns that tariffs could trigger stagflation—with GDP growth potentially falling to 1.3% in 2025 and a 40% recession risk—though equities remain supported by strong fundamentals reuters.com.

4. Low Volatility Amid Summer Thinning
   The VIX has declined to multi-month lows, but with summer trading volumes light, markets are more vulnerable to sudden swings if unexpected news emerges globenewswire.com+11ft.com+11home.saxo+11.

What to Watch Today

• Fed Watch: Monitor headlines for any developments on the Fed leadership front, given renewed political commentary.

• Oil & Commodities: Continued dollar weakness could lift gold and commodities; watch for any divergence.

• Trade & Tariff Developments: Tariff headlines—especially from the Trump administration—could shift stagflation risk sentiment.