📰 Market Outlook – Monday, June 23, 2025

Pre-Market Snapshot (as of ~9 AM ET):

• S&P 500 Futures: modestly higher — led by tech strength globenewswire.com+11m.economictimes.com+11thetimes.co.uk+11

• 10‑Year Treasury Yield (^TNX): around 4.44% — slightly elevated on Fed uncertainty

• Gold Futures (GC=F): near steady levels amid geopolitical jitters privatebank.bankofamerica.com+13marketwatch.com+13m.economictimes.com+13

🔍 What’s Driving the Markets Today

1. U.S. Airstrikes on Iran
   Over the weekend, the U.S. carried out airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. While equities are holding up, there are clear signs of trading around risk: oil briefly spiked and gold steadied as a safe-haven theguardian.com+5ft.com+5economictimes.indiatimes.com+5.

2. Geopolitics, Oil & Inflation
   Goldman Sachs cautions that any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could propel Brent crude above $100—bond markets are watching closely for signs of inflation spillover ft.com+8theguardian.com+8wsj.com+8.

3. Reassessing Fed Expectations
   With Treasury yields near 4.44%, markets are parsing recent Fed commentary. Morgan Stanley still sees equity upside but warns rate-cut expectations for 2026 may need recalibration theaustralian.com.au.

4. Sector Leadership
   Tech and semiconductors are driving futures higher, even as industrials remain under pressure from trade and geopolitical concerns .

📆 What to Watch This Week

• Geopolitical developments in Iran—especially any military escalation or diplomatic de-escalation—could drive volatility in oil, gold, and bond yields.

• Flash PMI data due mid-week from major economies (U.S., eurozone, U.K., Japan)—will reveal if there’s a global slowdown or stabilization .

• Fed commentary and rolling U.S. economic data (retail sales, industrial output) will help signal whether the central bank can shift from tightening to easing later this year.