📰 Market Outlook – Monday, June 30, 2025

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What’s Driving the Markets Today

1. U.S.–Canada Trade Breakthrough

Wall Street futures rose after Canada rescinded its digital services tax ahead of renewed trade discussions, lifting sentiment around trade resolution businessinsider.com+6investopedia.com+6reuters.com+6.

2. Geopolitical and Central Bank Calm

A continuing ceasefire in the Middle East eased safe-haven flows last week. Combined with softer Treasury yields (~4.28%), markets are digesting Fed remain cautious pending upcoming PCE data marketwatch.com+15home.saxo+15wsj.com+15.

3. Valuation Debate: Bull vs. Bear

Market strategists are divided: BofA’s Hartnett argues stocks are on the cusp of a major breakout, while David Rosenberg warns the market could be entering recession territory with stretched valuations marketwatch.com.

4. Crowded Trades at Risk

Positions in tech and gold are heavily crowded, with bank surveys indicating these may be vulnerable if the Fed signals a firm stance reuters.com.

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What to Look Out For

• PCE Inflation Report (Tomorrow): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge may significantly move yields and equities depending on whether inflation cools further.

• Corporate Earnings: Major tech and industrial firms release earnings this week, offering insight into growth and margin trends.

• Continued Trade Dialogue: Progress in U.S.–Canada talks—and any ripple effect on broader trade policies—could drive sector rotation and sentiment.