📰 Weekly Newsletter – Friday, June 20, 2025

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📊 Pre-Market Snapshot (as of ~9 AM ET):

• S&P 500 ETF (SPY): $597.44 (–0.00038%)

• 10‑Year Treasury Yield (^TNX): ~4.38% — yield edged lower this week following Tuesday’s CPI and Fed commentary

• Gold Futures (GC=F): approximately $3,354 (–0.5% weekly)

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🌍 This Week’s Trends & Insights

1. Geopolitical Lull in Middle East

Markets welcomed a brief pause in U.S. involvement in the Israel‑Iran conflict, triggered by a two-week delay in American intervention. That helped steady oil prices (~$77/barrel) and eased safe-haven pressures .

2. Fed Remains Cautious, Treasury Yields Calm

Despite hawkish overtones from Powell & Co., the Fed’s hold and the delay in rate-cut expectations combined with cooler inflation data kept 10‑year yields steady around 4.38% .

3. Equity Resilience Despite Risks

With the S&P 500 hovering near all-time highs, UBS strategists warn of a fragile “slowdown regime.” Tech and AI gains balanced by weakness in consumer-facing sectors, suggesting selective positioning ahead .

4. Gold Pullback after Risk Reprieve

Gold dropped roughly 0.5% on the week as geopolitical pressure eased and markets rebalanced. Still, it remains up significantly YTD amid broader uncertainty .

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🔍 What’s Next Week

• Fed Watch: Anticipation builds toward Powell’s testimony before Congress and any clues on the pace of future rate cuts.

• NATO Summit & Global Trade Updates: Progress on Iran diplomatic efforts and developments in U.S.–China trade discussions could shape flows into risk assets and commodities.

• Economic Calendar: Next week brings building permits, housing starts, and European manufacturing data—potentially influential for rate and growth expectations.

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This week saw a tentative easing of Middle East tensions, a steadying in Treasury yields, resilient equity performance, and a modest pause in gold’s rally. With geopolitical calm and upcoming central bank signals in focus, next week’s economic calendar and policy U-turns could reorient investor sentiment.