📰 Market Outlook – Friday, June 13, 2025

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What’s Driving the Markets This Week

1. Geopolitical Escalation
The sudden Israel strike on Iranian targets sent shockwaves through markets: oil surged over 7%, gold jumped ~1%, and risk assets pulled back as investors moved toward safe havens theguardian.com+1reuters.com+1. The 10‑year Treasury yield declined to about 4.31%, reflecting demand for government bonds en.wikipedia.org+14thetimes.co.uk+14nasdaq.com+14.

2. Oil Surge Hits Multiple Asset Classes
Brent crude soared nearly 7–8% amid supply‑risk fears in the Strait of Hormuz—this surge pressured equity sectors sensitive to energy costs, like airlines, while lifting oil majors and gold apnews.com+2theguardian.com+2thetimes.co.uk+2.

3. Bond Market Rally
Treasury yields dropped as investors sought safety. The 10‑year yield is currently around 4.31–4.35%, a sign of elevated demand for bonds amid the geopolitical storm .

4. Equity Market Reaction
S&P futures climbed pre-open, partially recovering after earlier losses, as geopolitical risks stabilized and markets assessed incoming data . However, volatility remains elevated due to the uncertain path ahead.

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What to Watch Today

• CPI Release (8:30 AM ET): Headline and core CPI readings will be scrutinized amidst this risk-off backdrop to provide insight into inflation trends and Fed expectations.

• Fed Commentary: Any dialogue from Fed officials may clarify policy direction in light of inflation and global tensions.

• Market Reaction to Events: Continued developments in the Middle East could further impact oil, bonds, equities, and gold.

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Bottom Line
Markets are navigating heightened geopolitical tension, with oil and gold sharply higher and bond yields falling, while equities balance cautious optimism with caution. Key now: today’s inflation data and central-bank communications.