Market Outlook — Monday, August 25, 2025

📰 Markets opened the week digesting Jackson Hole’s takeaways and positioning for a heavy earnings and data calendar while trade-policy headlines kept risk sentiment in check.

What’s driving markets

• Post-Jackson Hole recalibration. Investors are parsing Fed language from Jackson Hole and repositioning around the updated message that the Fed remains “data dependent,” which is driving day-to-day swings in rate-cut odds.

• Tariffs remain an overhang. Ongoing tariff headlines and country-specific exemptions continue to complicate corporate planning and have kept supply-chain and margin discussions front and center for many firms.

• Tech/AI leadership holds the tape. Index movements remain concentrated: a small group of mega-cap tech names is still doing the heavy lifting for headline indices, leaving breadth metrics narrowly constructive.

• Flows into safe havens ebb and flow. Gold and long-dated bonds are being watched as barometers of policy-risk sentiment; demand varies as investors balance risk-on positioning against policy uncertainty.

What to watch

• Any follow-up Fed speeches clarifying the Jackson Hole tone.

• Retail and services prints this week for signs of demand resilience.

• Breadth and flow indicators to see if gains are broadening beyond megacaps.