Market Outlook — Monday, August 18, 2025

📰 Markets opened the week in a cautious mood as investors balanced a heavy retail-earnings calendar with persistent trade-policy risk and concentrated index leadership.

What’s driving markets

• Jackson Hole front-row seats. Traders are trimming risk ahead of speeches at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, treating any hint about the timing of rate cuts as a near-term catalyst.

• Tariff uncertainty persists. Ongoing headlines around U.S. tariff policy are keeping corporate guidance and supply-chain conversations elevated for companies with cross-border exposure.

• Retail earnings in focus. Early retailer reports are being parsed not just for sales but for margin commentary and inventory signals that could feed through to near-term GDP and inflation expectations.

• Narrow market breadth. Tech and AI megacaps continue to drive headline indices, leaving market moves more concentrated and sensitive to individual earnings and guidance.

What to watch

• Later-week retail prints and follow-up retailer guidance.

• Any pre-Jackson Hole comments from Fed officials or central-bank delegates.

• Intraday breadth metrics to see whether rally participation broadens beyond megacaps.